A few weeks ago, I went to buy eggs. I paid for my unhatched (unhatchable?) chicken babies and as the vendor was about to hand me the goods, the nylon bag she’d packed them in gave way and 15 fragile hen fruits came crashing. She complained about the declining quality of the nylon bags as she packed a new batch for me — probably praying in her heart that there wouldn’t be any issues until she handed the eggs over. The unit cost of a nylon bag would be around 10-20 naira, but it cost her 3500 naira worth of eggs
A few days ago, I went to buy paper towels. When I got home, I noticed that the usual perforations (the ones made to make cutting easier) were now twice as far. This meant I had to take twice as much as usual before cutting, and I now have to use twice as many paper towels as usual.
Like many other industries, nylon bags and paper towels are both victims of an economy that has consistently declined over the last year and a half. An economy that has seen the prices of goods and products skyrocket and the quality of these products decline. Like many other people, I and the egg vendor are victims of this decline.
These two events are second (or third or fourth) order effects of the economy (which is probably an n-order effect of something else). These events also have n-order effects. The egg lady losing 3500 naira of goods might mean she wouldn’t have been able to meet up with the capital needed to buy her usual quantity of eggs. Using twice as many paper towels would mean I spend more on paper towels — money that could have been saved or used for something else.
Now, to the meat of the gist — second-order thinking. Second-order thinking is a mental model (a way of thinking) that requires you to consider the potential effects of your actions. Yes, it’s as simple as it sounds. All you have to do is ask yourself “and then what?”. The great thing is that you don’t have to stop at the second-order, you can go as far as you like. It’s “and then what’s?” all the day down. However, you must be careful to know when to stop thinking and start doing, lest you become a victim of action paralysis.
The second part of second-order thinking is considering the consequences of your decisions over a period of time — hours, days, months, years. The longer you can project the better. Some decisions could seem like good ones in the moment but become consequential as time goes by. For instance, stuffing your face with doughnuts every day might be enjoyable in the moment(s), but the potential damage to your health could outweigh the momentary fun. On the flip side, you have delayed gratification — resisting an immediate reward in favour of greater rewards at a later point in future — studying instead of watching that movie, taking a walk instead of laying on the couch all day, eating your veggies instead of stuffing your face with pizza.
Second-order thinking can be a purely mental exercise or you can write on paper instead for clarity. As with all other things, you get better at it with practice. Some peripheral abilities go into getting better at it. For example, you might need to research or gather information to get a better sense of the consequences of certain actions. Don’t let this stop you from trying, though. The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.
Thank you for reading. It’s been a very long time since I shared anything on Substack, but I hope to find my groove and write more often now. If you found this helpful or learnt anything from it, I wouldn’t mind you sharing it with a friend.
Second-order thinking is similar to the critical thinking activity of asking five 'Whys'. This article was inspirational. Thank you